Range size dynamics can explain why evolutionarily age and diversification rate correlate with contemporary extinction risk in plants

Extinction threatens many species, yet few factors predict this risk across the plant Tree of Life (ToL). Taxon age is one factor that may associate with extinction if occupancy of geographic and adaptive zones varies with time, but evidence for such an association has been equivocal. Age-dependent occupancy can also influence diversification rates and thus extinction risk where new taxa have small range and population sizes. Here we analysed 509 well-sampled genera from across the plant ToL. We found that a greater proportion of species were threatened by extinction in younger and faster-diversifying genera. Repeating our analyses in two large, well-sampled groups, we found that extinction risk increased with evolutionary age in conifer species but not palms. Potential range size decreased in older, non-threatened conifers more strongly than in threatened taxa, suggesting that range size dynamics may explain differing patterns of extinction risk across the ToL with consequences for biodiversity conservation.