Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019-nCOV outbreak in Hubei Province, China

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Abstract

As of 8am 30 th January (Beijing Time) 2020, Approximate 8000 cases across the world have been confirmed. It’s necessary to simulate epidemic trend of the 2019-nCOV outbreak in Hubei Province, the hardest-hit area. By SEIR simulation, the predicted epidemic peak in Hubei will be within 28 th January 2020 to 7 th February 2020, up to 7000-9000 infectious cases in total. The estimate above was based on some assumptions and limitations exited.

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