COVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?

  1. Nian Shao
  2. Yan Xuan
  3. Hanshuang Pan
  4. Shufen Wang
  5. Weijia Li
  6. Yue Yan
  7. Xingjie Li
  8. Christopher Y. Shen
  9. Xu Chen
  10. Xinyue Luo
  11. Yu Chen
  12. Boxi Xu
  13. Keji Liu
  14. Min Zhong
  15. Xiang Xu
  16. Yu Jiang
  17. Shuai Lu
  18. Guanghong Ding
  19. Jin Cheng
  20. Wenbin Chen
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Abstract

COVID-19 has been impacting on the whole world critically and constantly Since December 2019. We have independently developed a novel statistical time delay dynamic model on the basis of the distribution models from CCDC. Based only on the numbers of confirmed cases in different regions in China, the model can clearly reveal that the containment of the epidemic highly depends on early and effective isolation. We apply the model on the epidemic in Japan and conclude that there could be a rapid outbreak in Japan if no effective quarantine measures are carried out immediately.

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