Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020

  1. Shi Zhao
  2. Peihua Cao
  3. Daozhou Gao
  4. Zian Zhuang
  5. Marc KC Chong
  6. Yongli Cai
  7. Jinjun Ran
  8. Kai Wang
  9. Yijun Lou
  10. Weiming Wang
  11. Lin Yang
  12. Daihai He
  13. Maggie H Wang
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Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1-2.4). We estimate a large dispersion parameter than other coronaviruses, which implies that the virus is difficult to go extinction. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0-9.3), and thus timely actions were crucial. The lesson learnt on the ship is generally applicable in other settings.

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