Forecasting the Cumulative Number of COVID-19 Deaths in China: a Boltzmann Function-based Modeling Study

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Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak is on-going in China. Here we estimated the potential total numbers of COVID-19 deaths in China, outside Hubei (in China), Hubei Province, Wuhan City and outside Wuhan (in Hubei) by Boltzmann function-based analyses, which are 3342 (95% CI, 3214, 3527), 111 (109, 114), 3245 (3100, 3423), 2613 (2498, 2767) and 627 (603, 654), respectively. The results may help to evaluate the severity of COVID-19 outbreaks and facilitate timely mental service for the families of passed patients.

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