Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran

  1. Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez
  2. Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
  3. Shayesteh R. Ferdosi
  4. Sylvia K. Ofori
  5. Yiseul Lee
  6. Amna Tariq
  7. Gerardo Chowell
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Abstract

We estimated the reproduction number of 2020 Iranian COVID-19 epidemic using two different methods: R 0 was estimated at 4.4 (95% CI, 3.9, 4.9) (generalized growth model) and 3.50 (1.28, 8.14) (epidemic doubling time) (February 19 - March 1) while the effective R was estimated at 1.55 (1.06, 2.57) (March 6-19).

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