Effects of Chinese strategies for controlling the diffusion and deterioration of novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia in China
Abstract
Background
In December 2019, an outbreak of new type of coronavirus named COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. In a very short time, this virus spread rapidly over China, greatly threatening public health and economic development. The Chinese government acted quickly and implemented a series of strategies to prevent diffusion of this disease. We therefore sought to evaluate the effects of these Chinese strategies for controlling the spread of COVID-19.
Methods
From the data of cumulative confirmed cases from provincial Health Commission websites of China, we performed model fitting and calculated the growth speed of cumulative confirmed patients. We further analyzed the time when this growth speed, the rate of the number of new cases, reached its maximum (Speed max ). Comparing different times to Speed max of different areas in China, we calculated the dates at which the growth speed began to decline in different areas. Also, The number of plateaus were analyzed.
Results
The quartic model showed the best fit. For almost all areas in mainland China, the speed of infections reached Speed max and began to decline within 14 days; exceptions were Hebei, Heilongjiang, Hainan, Guizhou, and Hubei. The number of plateaus was significantly correlated with the emigration index. However, the distance from other areas to Hubei and the number of plateaus had little influence on when a province or area arrived at Speed max . Once strict intervention strategies were implemented, diffusion and deterioration of COVID-19 were inhibited quickly and effectively over China.
Conclusion
Our study suggests that Chinese strategies are highly effective on controlling the diffusion and deterioration of the novel coronavirus–infected pneumonia. These strategies supply experience and guidelines for other countries to control the COVID-19 epidemic.
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