Preliminary evaluation of voluntary event cancellation as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan as of 11 March, 2020
Abstract
Background
To control COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, sports and entertainment events were canceled in Japan for two weeks from 26 February to 11 March. It has been designated as voluntary event cancellation (VEC).
Object
This study predicts the effectiveness of VEC enduring and after its implementation.
Method
We applied a simple susceptible–infected–recovery model to data of patients with symptoms in Japan during 14 January to VEC introduction and after VEC introduction to 8 March. We adjusted the reporting delay in the latest few days.
Results
Results suggest that the basic reproduction number, R 0, before VEC introduced as 2.50 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was [2.43, 2.55] and the effective reproduction number, R v, after VEC introduced as 1. 88; its 95% CI was [1.68,2.02].
Discussion and Conclusion
Results demonstrated that VEC can reduce COVID-19 infectiousness by 35%, but R 0 remains higher than one.
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