Estimating Preventable COVID-19 Infections Related to Elective Outpatient Surgery in Washington State: A Quantitative Model
Abstract
Background
As the number of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US continues to rise, the US surgeon general, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and several specialty societies have issued recommendations to consider canceling elective surgeries. However, these recommendations have also faced controversy and opposition.
Methods
Using previously published information and publicly available data on COVID-19 infections, we calculated a transmission rate and generated a mathematical model to predict a lower bound for the number of healthcare-acquired COVID-19 infections that could be prevented by canceling or postponing elective outpatient surgeries in Washington state.
Results
Our model predicts that over the course of 30 days, at least 75.9 preventable patient infections and at least 69.3 preventable healthcare worker (HCW) infections would occur in WA state alone if elective outpatient procedures were to continue as usual.
Conclusion
Canceling elective outpatient surgeries during the COVID-19 pandemic could prevent a large number of patient and healthcare worker infections.
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