Modelling the epidemiological trend and behavior of COVID-19 in Italy

As of May 14, 2020, Italy has been one of the red hotspots for the COVID-19 pandemic. With over 220,000 confirmed cases and almost 33,000 confirmed deaths reported from February, it is necessary to fully understand the spread of COVID-19 in this country. By S.E.I.R. simulation, we estimated the most representative basic reproduction number R0 for the three most affected regions from February 22 to March 14, 2020. In doing so, we have been able to evaluate the consistency of the first containment measures until the end of April, as well as identify possible SARS-CoV-2 local behavior mutations and specificities. Next to that, through new estimates of the infection mortality rate, we recalculated a more plausible number of real infected. Finally, given the absolutely anomalous trend of the Lombardy region, we looked for correlations between COVID-19 total cases and air pollutants such as PM 10 and PM 2.5.