Modelling the Potential Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on a Hypothetical European Country

A SEIR simulation model for the COVID-19 pandemic was developed ( <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://covidsim.eu">http://covidsim.eu</ext-link> ) and applied to a hypothetical European country of 10 million population. Our results show which interventions potentially push the epidemic peak into the subsequent year (when vaccinations may be available) or which fail. Different levels of control (via contact reduction) resulted in 22% to 63% of the population sick, 0.2% to 0.6% hospitalised, and 0.07% to 0.28% dead (n=6,450 to 28,228).