The impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak - evidence from China

  1. Peng Shi
  2. Yinqiao Dong
  3. Huanchang Yan
  4. Xiaoyang Li
  5. Chenkai Zhao
  6. Wei Liu
  7. Miao He
  8. Shixing Tang
  9. Shuhua Xi
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Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the impact of temperature and absolute humidity on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak.

DESIGN

Ecological study.

SETTING

31 provincial-level regions in mainland China.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on COVID-19 incidence and climate between Jan 20 and Feb 29, 2020.

RESULTS

The number of new confirm COVID-19 cases in mainland China peaked on Feb 1, 2020. COVID-19 daily incidence were lowest at -10 °C and highest at 10 °C, while the maximum incidence was observed at the absolute humidity of approximately 7 g/m3. COVID-19 incidence changed with temperature as daily incidence decreased when the temperature rose. No significant association between COVID-19 incidence and absolute humidity was observed in distributed lag nonlinear models. Additionally, A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model confirmed that transmission rate decreased with the increase of temperature, leading to further decrease of infection rate and outbreak scale.

CONCLUSION

Temperature is an environmental driver of the COVID-19 outbreak in China. Lower and higher temperatures might be positive to decrease the COVID-19 incidence. M-SEIR models help to better evaluate environmental and social impacts on COVID-19.

What is already known on this topic

  • Many infectious diseases present an environmental pattern in their incidence.

  • Environmental factors, such as climate and weather condition, could drive the space and time correlations of infectious diseases, including influenza.

  • Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be transmitted through aerosols, large droplets, or direct contact with secretions (or fomites) as influenza virus can.

  • Little is known about environmental pattern in COVID-19 incidence.

What this study adds

  • The significant association between COVID-19 daily incidence and temperature was confirmed, using 3 methods, based on the data on COVID-19 and weather from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China.

  • Environmental factors were considered on the basis of SEIR model, and a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model was developed.

  • Simulations of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan presented similar effects of temperature on incidence as the incidence decrease with the increase of temperature.

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