Negligible Risk of the COVID-19 Resurgence Caused by Work Resuming in China (outside Hubei): a Statistical Probability Study

The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late February 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities, and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.