When will the Covid-19 epidemic fade out?

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Abstract

A discrete-time deterministic epidemic model is proposed with the aim of reproducing the behaviour observed in the incidence of real infectious diseases. For this purpose, we analyse a SIRS model under the framework of a small world network formulation. Using this model, we make predictions about the peak of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy. A Gaussian fit is also performed, to make a similar prediction.

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