Prediction of Peak and Termination of Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Epidemic in Iran

The growth and development of Covid-19 transmission have significantly cut the attention of many societies, particularly Iran that has been struggling with this contagious, infectious disease since late February 2020. In the present study, the known SIR model was used for the dynamics of an epidemic to provide a suitable assessment of the COVID-19 virus epidemic in Iran. The epidemic curve and SIR model parameters were obtained with the use of Iran statistical data. The recovered people were considered alongside the official number of confirmed victims as the reliable long-time statistical data of Iran. The results offered many important predictions of the COVID-19 virus epidemic such as realistic number of victims, infection rate, peak time, and other characteristics.