Perceived vulnerability to COVID-19 infection from event attendance: Results from Louisiana, USA, two weeks preceding the national emergency declaration

In response to the mounting threat of COVID-19, we added questions to an ongoing food preference study held at Louisiana State University from March 3-12 of 2020. We asked 356 participants: (1) In your opinion, how likely is it that the spread of COVID-19 (the coronavirus) will cause a public health crisis in the United States? (2) How concerned are you that you will contract COVID-19 by attending events on campus? Participants’ estimates of an impending national health crisis increased significantly during the study’s second week (March 9-12) while concern about personally contracting COVID-19 from attending campus events increased only marginally during the study’s final days. We find those expressing a higher likelihood of an impending national crisis were more concerned about contracting COVID-19 by attending campus events, suggesting a possible transmission from perceptions of national-level events to perceived personal vulnerability via local exposure. However, about 30% of participants perceived that COVID-19 would likely cause a public health crisis yet did not express concern about contracting COVID-19 from event attendance. These participants were significantly more likely to be younger students who agreed to participate in response to recruitment using same day flyer distribution. Women expressed a higher likelihood of an emerging national health crisis, although they were not more concerned than men that attending campus events would result in virus contraction. Other groups (e.g., white, students younger than 25, highest income group) displayed similar concern about a national-level crisis, yet were significantly less concerned about contracting COVID-19 from attending campus events than others. Also, participants randomly assigned to information emphasizing the national impacts of food waste expressed significantly greater concern of contracting COVID-19 by attending campus events. These results provide some initial insight about how people perceived national and personal risks in the early stages of the COVID-19 crisis in Louisiana.