Use Crow-AMSAA Method to predict the cases of the Coronavirus 19 in Michigan and U.S.A

The Crow-AMSAA method is used in engineering reliability world to predict the failures and evaluate the reliability growth. The author intents to use this model in the prediction of the Coronavirus 19 (COVID19) cases by using the daily reported data from Michigan, New York City, U.S.A and other countries. The piece wise Crow-AMSAA (CA) model fits the data very well for the infected cases and deaths at different phases while the COVID19 outbreak starting. The slope β of the Crow-AMSAA line indicates the speed of the transmission or death rate. The traditional epidemiological model is based on the exponential distribution, but the Crow-AMSAA is the Non Homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP) which can be used to modeling the complex problem like COVID19, especially when the various mitigation strategies such as social distance, isolation and locking down were implemented by the government at different places.