Based on current trends, almost all African countries are likely to report over 1 000 COVID-19 cases by the end of April 2020, and over 10 000 a few weeks after that

  1. Carl A. B. Pearson
  2. Cari Van Schalkwyk
  3. Anna M. Foss
  4. Kathleen M. O’Reilly
  5. SACEMA Modelling and Analysis Response Team
  6. CMMID COVID-19 working group
  7. Juliet R. C. Pulliam
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Abstract

For African countries currently reporting COVID-19 cases, we estimate when they will report more than 1 000 and 10 000 cases. Assuming current trends, more than 80% are likely to exceed 1 000 cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10 000 a few weeks later.

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