Estimating number of cases and spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom using critical care admissions, February to March 2020

  1. Mark Jit
  2. Thibaut Jombart
  3. Emily S Nightingale
  4. Akira Endo
  5. Sam Abbott
  6. LSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group
  7. W John Edmunds
1 evaluations Published on
Read the full article Related papers
This article on Sciety

Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from multiple surveillance databases to determine likely COVID-19 case numbers and growth in the United Kingdom from 16 February – 23 March 2020, after which a national lockdown occurred. We estimate that on 23 March, there were 102,000 (median; 95% credible interval 54,000 - 155,000) new cases and 320 (211 - 412) new critical care reports, with 464,000 (266,000 – 628,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

Related articles

Related articles are currently not available for this article.