The impact of early social distancing at COVID-19 Outbreak in the largest Metropolitan Area of Brazil

  1. Fabiana Ganem
  2. Fabio Macedo Mendes
  3. Silvano Barbosa de Oliveira
  4. Victor Bertollo Gomes Porto
  5. Wildo Navegantes de Araújo
  6. Helder I. Nakaya
  7. Fredi A. Diaz-Quijano
  8. Julio Croda
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Abstract

We calculated the impact of early social distancing on the COVID-19 transmission in the São Paulo metropolitan area and forecasted the ICU beds needed to cope the epidemic demand by using an age-stratified SEIR model. Within 60 days, these measures would avoid 89,133 deaths.

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