HOW THE COVID-19 PANDEMIA IS SPREADING IN ITALY

In this short paper we describe a simple technique aimed to forecast the course of the spreading of Covid-19 virus infection in Italy. Data released every day by the Italian “Protezione Civile” organization have been processed with reference of the the SIR classical mathematical model by Kermack and McKendrick . The model provides a rough estimate of the time needed to completely block virus spread. The above assumptions will be valid if Covid-19 will not be recognized as capable of establishing a chronic productive infection in significant fraction of the population.