The Epidemiological Implications of Jails for Community, Corrections Officer, and Incarcerated Population Risks from COVID-19

COVID-19 is challenging many societal institutions, including our criminal justice systems. Some have proposed or enacted (e.g. the State of New Jersey) reductions in the jail and/or prison populations. We present a mathematical model to explore the epidemiological impact of such interventions in jails and contrast them with the consequences of maintaining unaltered practices. We consider infection risk and likely in-custody deaths, and estimate how within-jail dynamics lead to spill-over risks, not only affecting incarcerated people, but increasing exposure, infection, and death rates for both corrections officers, and the broader community beyond the justice system. We show that, given a typical jail-community dynamic, operating in a business-as-usual way will result in significant and rapid loss of life. Large scale reductions in arrest and speeding of releases are likely to save the lives of incarcerated people, jail staff, and the community at large.