Basic estimation-prediction techniques for Covid-19, and a prediction for Stockholm

Predicting future infections for covid-19 is essential in planning healthcare system as well as deciding on relaxed or strengthened preventive measures. Here a quick and simple estimation-prediction method for an urban area is presented, a method which only uses the observed initial doubling time and R ₀ , and prediction is performed without or with preventive measures put in place. The method is applied to the urban area of Stockholm, and predictions indicate that the peak of infections happened in mid-April and infections start settling towards end of May.