Prevent the resurgence of infectious disease with asymptomatic carriers

After reaching the peak of the COVID-19 outbreak, many regions are in search of a reopening plan that would minimize resurgence. Here we show to prevent resurgence local governments need to estimate how early and how many COVID-19 cases can be detected. It is safe to end social distancing if the majority of cases are detected early in the infection window. If cases are detected later, a 2-layer quarantine may be necessary to prevent resurgence. If fewer cases are detected, community events, schools, and large businesses may need to remain in virtual mode. Our results demonstrate that detecting more cases earlier is essential for preventing COVID-19 resurgence.