ARIMA modelling of predicting COVID-19 infections

The World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus on March 11, 2020 declared the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak a global pandemic [4] the reason being the number of cases outside China increased 13-fold and the number of countries with cases increased threefold. In this paper a time series model to predict short-term prediction of the transmission of the exponentially growing COVID-19 time series is modelled and studied. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model prediction is performed on the number of cumulative cases over a time period and is validated over Akaike information criterion (AIC) statistics.