Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence and severity in Great Britain: results from 2,266,235 users of the COVID-19Symptoms Tracker app

  1. Ruth C E Bowyer
  2. Thomas Varsavsky
  3. Carole H. Sudre
  4. Benjamin A K Murray
  5. Maxim B Freidin
  6. Darioush Yarand
  7. Sajaysurya Ganesh
  8. Joan Capdevila
  9. Ellen J Thompson
  10. Elco Bakker
  11. M. Jorge Cardoso
  12. Richard Davies
  13. Jonathan Wolf
  14. Tim D Spector
  15. Sebastien Ourselin
  16. Claire J Steves
  17. Cristina Menni
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Abstract

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 2,266,235 unique GB users of theCOVID Symptom Tracker app, we find that COVID-19 prevalence and severity became rapidly distributed across the UK within a month of the WHO declaration of the pandemic, with significant evidence of “urban hot-spots”. We found a geo-social gradient associated with disease severity and prevalence suggesting resources should focus on urban areas and areas of higher deprivation. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported data to inform public health policy and resource allocation.

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