COVID-19 in India: State-wise Analysis and Prediction
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a highly infectious disease, was first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. The disease has spread to 212 countries and territories around the world and infected (confirmed) more than three million people. In India, the disease was first detected on 30 January 2020 in Kerala in a student who returned from Wuhan. The total (cumulative) number of confirmed infected people is more than 37000 till now across India (3 May 2020). Most of the research and newspaper articles focus on the number of infected people in the entire country. However, given the size and diversity of India, it may be a good idea to look at the spread of the disease in each state separately, along with the entire country. For example, currently, Maharashtra has more than 10000 confirmed cumulative infected cases, whereas West Bengal has less than 800 confirmed infected cases (1 May 2020). The approaches to address the pandemic in the two states must be different due to limited resources. In this article, we will focus the infected people in each state (restricting to only those states with enough data for prediction) and build three growth models to predict infected people for that state in the next 30 days. The impact of preventive measures on daily infected-rate is discussed for each state.
Highlights of the Analysis
Data considered for analysis: up to 1 May 2020.
One model can mislead us. Here, we consider the exponential, the logistic and the SIS models along with daily infection-rate (DIR). We interpret the results jointly from all models rather than individually.
We expect DIR to be zero or negative to conclude that COVID-19 is not spreading in a state. Even a small positive DIR (say 0.01) indicates virus is spreading in the community. The virus can potentially increase the DIR anytime.
<underline>Severe</underline>: The states without a decreasing trend in DIR and near exponential growth in active infected cases are Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal.
<underline>Moderate</underline>: The states with an almost decreasing trend in DIR and non-increasing growth in active infected cases are Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Punjab and Bihar.
<underline>Controlled</underline>: The states with a decreasing trend in DIR and decreasing growth in active infected cases in the last few days are Kerala, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, and Telangana.
States with non-decreasing DIR need to do much more in terms of the preventive measures immediately to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. On the other hand, the states with decreasing DIR can maintain the same status to see the DIR become zero or negative for consecutive 14 days to be able to declare the end of the pandemic.
Related articles
Related articles are currently not available for this article.