Impact of mitigating interventions and temperature on the instantaneous reproduction number in the COVID-19 epidemic among 30 US metropolitan areas
Abstract
Background
After more than four months into the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, over 347,500 people had died worldwide. The current study aims to evaluate how mitigating interventions affected the epidemic process in the 30 largest metropolitan areas in the US and whether temperature played a role in the epidemic process.
Methods
Publicly available data for the time series of COVID-19 cases and deaths and weather were analyzed at the metropolitan level. The time-varying reproductive numbers (R t ) based on retrospective moving average were used to explore the trends. Student t tests were used to compare temperature and peak R t cross-sectionally.
Results
We found that virus transmissibility, measured by instantaneous reproduction number (R t ), had declined since the end of March for all areas and almost all of them reached a R t of 1 or below after April 15, 2020. However, the R t s remained around 1 for most areas since then and some small and short rebounds were presented in some areas, suggesting a persistent epidemic in those areas. The timing of the main decline was concurrent with the implementation of mitigating interventions. Cities with warm temperature also tended to have a lower peak R t than that of cities with cold temperature. However, large geographic variations existed.
Conclusions
Aggressive interventions might have mitigated the current epidemic of COVID-19, while temperature might have some weak effects on the virus transmission. We may need to prepare for a possible return of the coronavirus outbreak.
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