Mobility data can explain the entire COVID-19 outbreak course in Japan
Abstract
Background
In Japan, as a countermeasure against the COVID-19 outbreak, voluntary restrictions against going out (VRG) have been applied.
Object
We examined mobility information provided by Apple Inc. to a susceptible–infected–recovery model.
Method
When applying a polynomial function to daily Apple data with the SIR model, we presumed the function up to a cubic term as in our earlier study.
Results
Estimation results demonstrated R 0 as 1.507 and its 95% confidence interval was [1.502, 1.509].. The estimated coefficients of Apple data was 1.748 and its 95% confidence interval was [1.731, 1.788].
Discussion and Conclusion
Results show that mobility data from Apple Inc. can explain the entire course of the outbreak in COVID-19 in Japan. Therefore, monitoring Apple data might be sufficient to adjust control measures to maintain an effective reproduction number of less than one.
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