Quantitative Estimation of Disruption in Social Contact Structure and its Effect in COVID-19 Spread in India

In this paper we use the well-known SIR (Susceptible-Infected-recovered) epidemiology model for quantitatively estimating the impact of this disruption in the social contact structure of India and retrospectively estimate the number of COVID-19 cases in India by neglecting the single source event. Model predicts that around 32% of COVID-19 cases (as on April 14, 2020) are contributed by the single source event. Given this disruption of the social contact structure, the model shows that the country wide lockdown has been effective in bringing down the number of cases in India.