Mathematical model describing CoViD-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil – Evaluating isolation as control mechanism and forecasting epidemiological scenarios of release

We formulated a mathematical model considering young (below 60 years old) and elder (above 60 years) subpopulations to describe the introduction and dissemination of new coronavirus epidemics in the São Paulo State, Brazil. From the data collected in São Paulo State, we estimated the model parameters and calculated the basic reproduction number asR₀= 6.828. Considering isolation as a control mechanism, we varied the releasing proportions of young and elder persons to assess their epidemiological impacts. The best scenarios were release of young persons, but maintaining elder persons isolated. To avoid the collapse of the health care system, the isolation must be at least 80%.