Chemical patterns of colony membership and mother-offspring similarity in Antarctic fur seals are reproducible over time

Replication studies are essential for assessing the validity of previous research findings and for probing their generality. However, it has proven challenging to reproduce the results of ecological and evolutionary studies, partly because of the complexity and lability of many of the phenomena being investigated, but also due to small sample sizes, low statistical power and publication bias. Additionally, replication is often considered too difficult in field settings where many factors are beyond the investigator’s control and where spatial and temporal dependencies may be strong. We investigated the feasibility of reproducing original research findings in the field of chemical ecology by attempting to replicate a previous study by our team on Antarctic fur seals (Arctocephalus gazella). In the original study, skin swabs from 41 mother-offspring pairs from two adjacent breeding colonies on Bird Island, South Georgia, were analysed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Seals from the two colonies differed significantly in their chemical fingerprints, suggesting that colony membership may be chemically encoded, and mothers were also chemically similar to their pups, implying that phenotype matching may be involved in mother-offspring recognition. Here, we generated and analysed comparable chemical data from a non-overlapping sample of 50 mother-offspring pairs from the same two colonies five years later. The original results were corroborated in both hypothesis testing and estimation contexts, withp-values remaining highly significant and effect sizes, standardized between studies by bootstrapping the chemical data over individuals, being of comparable magnitude. We furthermore expanded the geographic coverage of our study to include pups from a total of six colonies around Bird Island. Significant chemical differences were observed in the majority of pairwise comparisons, indicating not only that patterns of colony membership persist over time, but also that chemical signatures are colony-specific in general. Our study systematically confirms and extends our previous findings, while also implying that temporal and spatial heterogeneity need not necessarily negate the reproduction and generalization of ecological research findings.