The relatively young and rural population may limit the spread and severity of Covid-19 in Africa: a modelling study

Binta Zahra Diop
Marième Ngom
Clémence Pougué Biyong
John N. Pougué Biyong

1 evaluations Published on May 12, 2020

This article on Sciety

Abstract

Introduction

A novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to all regions of the world. There is great uncertainty regarding how countries characteristics will affect the spread of the epidemic; to date, there are few studies that attempt to predict the spread of the epidemic in African countries. In this paper, we investigate the role of demographic patterns, urbanization and co-morbidities on the possible trajectories of COVID-19 in Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal.

Methods

We use an augmented deterministic SIR model to predict the true spread of the disease, under the containment measures taken so far. We dis-aggregate the infected compartment into asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, and severely symptomatic to match observed clinical development of COVID-19. We also account for age structures, urbanization, and co-morbidities (HIV, tuberculosis, anemia).

Results

In our baseline model, we project that the peak of active cases will occur in July, subject to the effectiveness of policy measures. When accounting for the urbanization, and factoring-in co-morbidities, the peak may occur between June 2 ^nd and June 17 ^th (Ghana), July 22 ^nd and August 29 ^th (Kenya), and finally May 28 ^th and June 15 ^th (Senegal). Successful containment policies could lead to lower rates of severe infections. While most cases will be mild, we project in the absence of policies further containing the spread, that between 0.78 and 1.03%, 0.61 and 1.22%, and 0.60 and 0.84% of individuals in Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal respectively may develop severe symptoms at the time of the peak of the epidemic.

Conclusion

Compared to Europe, Africa’s younger and rural population may modify the severity of the epidemic. The large youth population may lead to more infections but most of these infections will be asymptomatic or mild, and will probably go undetected. The higher prevalence of underlying conditions must be considered.

Summary

What is known?

While most COVID-19 studies focus on western and Asian countries, very few are concerned with the spread of the virus in African countries.
Most African countries have relatively low urbanization rates, a young population and context-specific co-morbidities that are still to be explored in the spread of COVID-19.

What are the new findings?

In our baseline predictions 33 to 50% of the public will be actively infected at the peak of the epidemic and 1 in 36 (Ghana), 1 in 40 (Kenya) and 1 in 42 (Senegal) of these active cases may be severe.
With rural areas, infection may be lowered to 65-73% (Ghana), 48-71% (Kenya) and 61-69% (Senegal) of the baseline infections.
Comorbidities may however increase the ratio of severe infections among the active cases at the peak of the epidemic.

What do the new findings imply?

Rural areas and large youth population may limit the spread and severity of the epidemic and outweigh the negative impact of HIV, tuberculosis and anemia.

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