A simple model to fit the time evolution of the daily death rate of Covid-19 in European Union countries

We suggest a minimal model to describe the evolution of daily deaths due to Covid-19 in the European Union (EU) and UK, without any epidemiological hypothesis. Assuming current lockdown conditions were to remain in place, as of May 3rd 2020, this ad hoc fitting model is forecasting a total of 204 586 deaths in the EU. We could currently be at 2/3 of the total casualty count, and reach an overall death rate of one over 2 500 people.