A dynamic model for Covid-19 in Brazil

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Abstract

A dynamic model for the current coronavirus outbreak is presented. The most important parameters are identified which determine the number of cases progression. Results of a numerical simulation are compared with existing data of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sao Paulo and Brazil. On the basis of these results we display the effect of social distancing measures taken so far, which flattened the infection curve. A simple three steps procedure is proposed to predict changes in the evolution of the epidemics and we discuss the importance of serological representative surveys to relate the epidemic time to the real time. A criteria to start relaxing social distance measures is suggested.