Estimation of the true infection rate and infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 in each country

The True Infection Rate (TIR) in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are unknown. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data. The estimated TIR was compared with local antibody surveys. Estimated IFR took on a wide range of values up to 10%. The importance of the attenuation of the viral virulence is emphasized.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a worldwide peril. The True Infection Rate (TIR) of COVID-19 in the whole population of each country and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) would be important parameters for guiding the strategy of public health, although they are unknown yet. We devised a simple method to infer TIR and IFR based on the open data.