Risk Factors for COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 related in-hospital and community deaths by Local Authority District in Great Britain

Objectives: To undertake a preliminary hypothesis-generating analysis exploring putative risk factors for coronavirus diseae 2019 (COVID-19) population-adjusted deaths, compared with non-COVID-19 related deaths, at a local authority district (LAD) level in hospital, care homes and at home. Design: Ecological retrospective cohort study Setting Local authority districts (LADs) in England, Scotland and Wales (Great Britain (GB)). Participants All LAD deaths registered by week 16 of 2020. Main Outcome Measures Death registration where COVID-19 is mentioned as a contributing factor per 100,000 people in all settings, and in i) cares homes, ii) hospitals or iii) home only, in comparison to non-COVID-19 related deaths. Results Across GB by week 16 of 2020, 20,684 deaths had been registered mentioning COVID-19, equivalent to 25.6 per 100,000 people. Significant risk factors for LAD COVID-19 death in comparison to non-COVID-19 related death were air pollution and proportion of the population who were female. Significant protective factors were higher air temperature and proportion of the population who were ex-smokers. Conversely, for all COVID-19 unrelated deaths in comparison to COVID-19 deaths, higher rates of communal living, higher population rates of chronic kidney disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease deaths under 75 and dementia were predictive of death, whereas, higher rates of flight passengers was protective. Looking at individual setttings, the most notable findings in care homes was Scotland being a significant risk factor for COVID-19 related deaths compared to England. For hospital setting, the proportion of the population who were from black and Asian minority ethnic (BAME) groups significantly predicted COVID-19 related death. Conclusions This is the first study within GB to assess COVID-19 related deaths in comparison to COVID-19 unrelated deaths across hospital, care homes and home combined. As an ecological study, the results cannot be directly extrapolated to individuals. However, the analysis may be informative for public health policy and protective measures. From our hypothesis-generating analysis, we propose that air pollution is a significant risk factor and high temperature a significant protective factor for COVID-19 related deaths. These factors cannot readily be modelled at an individual level. Scottish local authorities and local authorities with a higher proportion of individuals of BAME origin are potential risk factors for COVID-19 related deaths in care homes and in hospitals, respectively. Altogether, this analysis shows the benefits of access to high quality open data for public information, public health policy and further research.