Estimation of the Final Size of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Balochistan, Pakistan

COVID-19 is a new disease that is spreading very fast in Pakistan. Cases have been reported from all the provinces in Pakistan including Balochistan. The first two confirmed cases in Pakistan had travel history from Iran to Pakistan, The some of the initial cases were quarantine at Taftan boarder in Balochistan, hence SIR model is used to predict the magnitude of the disease in Balochistan from May 2020 on wards when lock down and other social distancing measures were loosen up by the government of Balochistan. Our Prediction model shows that about 30,00000 individuals in Balochistan will be infected by 5 ^th of July 2020.Over all 25% of the total population of Balochistan will be affected by this disease with 98% (2940,000) recovery rate by the end of 15 ^th July 2020.