Age separation dramatically reduces COVID-19 mortality rate in a computational model of a large population

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Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has caused a global lock down in many countries throughout the world. Faced with a new reality, and until a vaccine or efficient treatment is found, humanity must figure out ways to keep economy going on one hand, yet keep the population safe on the other hand, especially those that are susceptible to this virus. Here we use a network simulation, with parameters that were drawn from what is known about the virus, to explore 5 different scenarios of partial lock down release. We find that separating age groups by reducing interactions between age groups, protects the general population and reduces mortality rates. Furthermore, addition of new connections within the same age group to compensate for the lost connections outside the age group, still has a strong beneficial influence and reduces the total death toll by 66%. While complete isolation from society may be the most protective scenario for the elderly population, it would have an emotional and possibly cognitive impact that might outweigh its benefit. We therefore propose creating age-related social recommendations or even restrictions, thereby allowing social connections but still strong protection for the older population.

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