Safety-Stock: Predicting the demand for supplies in Brazilian hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract
Background
Many challenges lie ahead when dealing with COVID-19, not only related to the acceleration of the pandemic, but also to the prediction of personal protective equipment consumption to accommodate the explosive demand. Due to this situation of uncertainty, the hospital administration encourages the excess stock of these materials, over-stocking products in some hospitals, and provoke shortage in others. The number of available personal protective equipment is one of the three main factors that limit the number of patients at a hospital, along with the number of available beds and the number of professionals per shift.
Objective
In this scenario, a challenge is to build an easy-to-use expert system to predict the demand for personal protective equipment in hospitals during the COVID-19 pandemic, which can be updated in real-time for short term planning.
Methods
We propose naive statistical modeling, which combines historical data of the consumption of personal protective equipment by hospitals, current protocols for their uses and epidemiological data related to the disease, to build predictive models for the demand for personal protective equipment in Brazilian hospitals during the pandemic. We then embed our modeling in the free Safety-Stock expert system, which can provide the safety stock levels for a particular hospital.
Results
The Safety-Stock system provides the prediction of consumption/demand for personal protective equipment over time, indicating the moment when the hospital reaches maximum consumption, the estimate of how long it will work in this state, and when it will leave it.
Conclusion
With our predictions, a hospital may have its needs related to specific personal protective equipment estimated, taking into account its historical stock levels and possible scheduled purchases. The tool allows for the adoption of strategies to control and keep the stock at safety levels to the demand, mitigating the risk of stock-out. As a direct consequence, it also enables the interchange and cooperation between hospitals, aiming to maximize the availability of equipment during the pandemic situation.
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