Predicting the end-stage of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil

We develop a dynamic model of a COVID-19 epidemic as a system of differential equations. The model incorporates an asymptomatic infectious stage and a symptomatic infectious stage. We apply the model to the current COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We compare the model output to current epidemic data, and project forward in time possible end-stages of the epidemic in Brazil. The model emphasizes the importance of reducing asymptomatic infections in controlling the epidemic.