COVID-19 :Determinants of Hospitalization, ICU and Death among 20,293 reported cases in Portugal
Abstract
Introduction
Determinants of hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death are still unclear for Covid-19 and only a few studies have adjusted for confounding for different clinical outcomes including all reported cases in a country. We used routine surveillance data from Portugal to identify risk factors for COVID-19 outcomes, in order to support risk stratification, clinical and public health interventions, and scenarios to plan health care resources.
Methods
We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 20,293 laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Portugal extracted in April 28 2020, electronically through the National Epidemic Surveillance System of the Directorate-General of Health(DGS). We calculated absolute risks, relative risks (RR) and adjusted relative risks (aRR) to identify demographic and clinical factors associated with hospitalization, admission to ICU and death using Poisson regressions.
Results
Increasing age after 60 years was the greatest determinant for all outcomes. Assuming 0–50 years as reference, being aged 80–89 years was the strongest determinant of hospital admission (aRR-5.7), 70–79 years for ICU(aRR-10.4) and > 90 years for death(aRR-226.8) with an aRR of 112.7 in those 70–79. Among comorbidities, Immunodeficiency, cardiac disease, kidney disease, and neurologic disease were independent risk factors for hospitalization (aRR 1.83,1.79,1.56, 1.82), for ICU these were cardiac, Immunodeficiency, kidney and lung disease (aRR 4.33, 2.76, 2.43, 2.04), and for death they were kidney, cardiac and chronic neurological disease (aRR: 2.9, 2.6, 2.0) Male gender was a risk factor for all outcomes. There were small statistically significant differences for the 3 outcomes between regions.
Discussion and Conclusions
Older age stands out as the strongest risk factor for all outcomes specially for death as absolute is risk was small for those younger than 50. These findings have implications in terms of risk stratified public health measures that should prioritize protecting older people although preventive behavior is needed in all ages. Epidemiologic scenarios and clinical guidelines may consider these estimated risks, even though under-ascertainment of mild and asymptomatic cases should be considered.
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