The hidden variable in the dynamics of transmission of COVID-19: A Henon map approach

We consider the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 which is characterized by two distinct features. One is the existence of asymptomatic carriers which is the hidden variable in the problem. The other is the issue of latency which means that among the symptomatic carriers there could be a fraction whose symptoms develop after a couple of days. We write down a Henon-like map to take these effects into account and find that the map has an unusual fixed point which corresponds to a very high ratio of asymptomatic to symptomatic infected persons. This fixed point has its own stability zone and influences the dynamics overall. Although a rather elementary model, we show that it is not totally devoid of reality.