Implementation of An Online COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator for Tracking the Spread of the Coronavirus in Singapore and Other Countries

This paper describes the methods underlying the development of an online COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator for tracking COVID-19 growth parameters. From publicly available infection case data, the calculator is used to estimate the effective reproduction number, doubling time, final epidemic size, and death toll. As a case study, we analyzed the results for Singapore during the “Circuit breaker” period from April 7, 2020 to the end of May 2020. The calculator shows that the stringent measures imposed have an immediate effect of rapidly slowing down the spread of the coronavirus. After about two weeks, the effective reproduction number reduced to 1.0. Since then, the number has been fluctuating around 1.0.

The COVID-19 Epidemic Calculator is available in the form of an online Google Sheet and the results are presented as Tableau Public dashboards at <ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="http://www.cv19.one">www.cv19.one</ext-link>. By making the calculator readily accessible online, the public can have a tool to meaningfully assess the effectiveness of measures to control the pandemic.