Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study

  1. A. J. Fowler
  2. T. D. Dobbs
  3. Y. I. Wan
  4. R. Laloo
  5. S. Hui
  6. D. Nepogodiev
  7. A. Bhangu
  8. I. S. Whitaker
  9. R. M. Pearse
  10. T. E. F. Abbott
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Abstract

Background

The response to COVID-19 has required cancellation of all but the most urgent surgeries, including many cancer operations. We estimated the number of cancelled surgical procedures in the National Health Service (NHS) in England due to COVID-19 and how this deficit would change over time once elective surgery was reintroduced.

Methods

Modelling study using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data from 2014 to 2019. Using NHS England definitions, surgical procedures were grouped into four classes of urgency. We calculated time-weighted average numbers of surgical procedures from 1stMarch 2020 and extrapolated to 28thFebruary 2021 informed by activity in previous years. We estimated the procedure deficit using multiple conservative assumptions and then modelled the reintroduction of elective surgery between 1stJune 2020 and 28thFebruary 2021, estimating the resources required to achieve this. Costs of surgery were calculated using NHS reference costs. Estimates are reported with 95% confidence intervals.

Findings

4,547,534 (3,318,195 - 6,250,771) patients with pooled mean age of 53.5 years were expected to undergo surgery in the NHS in England between 1stMarch 2020 and 28thFebruary 2021. Due to COVID-19, 749,248 (513,565 - 1,077,448) surgical procedures were cancelled by 31stMay 2020. As current guidelines require a gradual reintroduction of elective surgery, this deficit will increase further and 2,270,178 (1,453,057 - 3,363,472) patients will be awaiting surgery by 28th February 2021. The cost of these delayed procedures is £4,688,318,443 (£2,726,364,240 - £7,070,166,056). However, the safe delivery of surgery during the pandemic will require substantial extra resources including personal protective equipment and universal preoperative screening, leading to additional costs of £606,252,901 (£521,159,931 - £730,720,808).

Interpretation

Reintroduction of elective surgery during the pandemic response in NHS England will be associated with substantial treatment delays for many patients, and a large increase in treatment costs.

Funding

NIHR (DRF-2018-11-ST2-062) to AJF.

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