COVID-19 IN INDIA: MODELLING, FORECASTING AND STATE-WISE COMPARISON

COVID-19 has turned the whole world upside down economically and socially. COVID-19 pandemic has caused around five crores of cases and three lakhs deaths globally as of 27 May 2020. This paper adopts four mathematical growth models. Basic models are encouraged because these models can make predictions with the available data and variables in the current scenario of COVID-19 pandemic. The best-fitted model is identified in accordance with the value of the coefficient of determination. As per the best model, there might be greater than 16 lakhs cases at the infection end in India. After predicting the future size of the pandemic, we analyzed how the disease severity varies among the Indian states and union territories using Case Fatality Rates (CFR).