Associations of ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors with COVID-19 transmission in 31 Chinese provinces: A time-series study
Abstract
Background
Evidence regarding the effects of ambient air pollutants and meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission is limited.
Objectives
To explore the associations of air pollutants and meteorological factors with COVID-19 confirmed cases across 31 Chinese provinces during the outbreak period.
Methods
The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air pollutant concentrations and meteorological factors in 31 Chinese provinces from January 25 to February 29, 2020 were extracted from authoritative electronic databases. The associations were estimated for a single-day lag (lag0-lag6) as well as moving averages lag (lag01-lag05) using generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs), adjusted for time trends, day of the week, holidays and meteorological variables. Region-specific analyses and meta-analysis were conducted in five selected regions with diverse air pollution levels and weather conditions. Nonlinear exposure-response analyses were performed.
Results
We examined 77,578 COVID-19 confirmed cases across 31 Chinese provinces during the study period. An increase of each interquartile range in PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO at lag4 corresponded to 1.40 (1.37-1.43), 1.35 (1.32-1.37), 1.01 (1.00-1.02), 1.08 (1.07-1.10), 1.28 (1.27-1.29) and 1.26 (1.24-1.28) odds ratios (ORs) of daily COVID-19 confirmed new cases, respectively. For 1 °C, 1% and 1 m/s increase in temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity, the ORs were 0.97 (0.97-0.98), 0.96 (0.96-0.97), and 0.94 (0.92-0.95), respectively. The estimates of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and all meteorological factors remained statistically significant after meta-analysis for the five selected regions. The exposure-response relationships showed that higher concentrations of air pollutants and lower meteorological factors were associated with daily COVID-19 confirmed new cases increasing.
Conclusions
Higher air pollutant concentrations and lower temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity may favor COVID-19 transmission. As summer months are arriving in the Northern Hemisphere, the environmental factors and implementation of public health control measures may play an optimistic role in controlling COVID-19 epidemic.
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