Using past and current data to estimate potential crisis service use in mental healthcare after the COVID-19 lockdown: South London and Maudsley data

The lockdown policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK has a potentially important impact on provision of mental healthcare with uncertain consequences over the 12 months ahead. Past activity may provide a means to predict future demand. Taking advantage of the Clinical Record Interactive Search (CRIS) data resource at the South London and Maudsley NHS Trust (SLaM; a large mental health service provider for 1.2m residents in south London), we carried out a range of descriptive analyses to inform the Trust on patient groups who might be most likely to require inpatient and home treatment team (HTT) crisis care. We considered the 12 months following UK COVID-19 lockdown policy on 16^th March, drawing on comparable findings from previous years, and quantified levels of change in service delivery to those most likely to receive crisis care. For 12-month crisis days from 16^th March in 2015-19, we found that most (over 80%) were accounted for by inpatient care (rather than HTT), most (around 75%) were used by patients who were current or recent Trust patients at the commencement of follow-up, and highest numbers were used by patients with a previously recorded schizophreniform disorder diagnosis. For current/recent patients on 16^th March there had been substantial reductions in use of inpatient care in the following 31 days in 2020, more than previous years; changes in total non-inpatient contact numbers did not differ in 2020 compared to previous years, although there had been a marked switch from face-to-face to virtual contacts.