Huge Excess Mortality due to the delta strain of COVID-19 in Japan in August and September, 2021

  1. Junko Kurita
  2. Tamie Sugawara
  3. Yasushi Ohkusa
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Abstract

Background

No remarkable mortality attributable to COVID-19 confirmed by PCR test has been observed in Japan.

Object

We sought to quantify excess mortality using the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) model.

Method

We applied the NIID model to deaths of all causes from 1987 up through October, 2021 for the whole of Japan and up through August, 2021 for Tokyo.

Results

Results in Japan show huge number of excess mortality, up to 10 thousands in the two months, in August and September, 2021. On the other hand, in Tokyo, 1323 excess mortality was detected

Discussion and Conclusion

We detected substantial excess mortality in Japan in August and September, 2021 and in Tokyo in August, 2021. It might be important to continue to monitor excess mortality of COVID-19 carefully hereafter.

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