INDEPENDENT ASSOCIATION OF METEOROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH INITIAL SPREAD OF COVID-19 IN INDIA

Whether weather plays a part in the transmissibility of the novel COronaVIrus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is still not established. We tested the hypothesis that meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and rainfall) are independently associated with transmissibility of COVID-19 quantified using the basic reproduction rate (R ₀ ). We used publicly available datasets on daily COVID-19 case counts (total n = 108,308), three-hourly meteorological data and community mobility data over a three-month period. Estimated R ₀ varied between 1.15-1.28. Mean daily air temperature (inversely) and wind speed (positively) were significantly associated with time dependent R ₀ , but the contribution of countrywide lockdown to variability in R ₀ was over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Thus, abating temperatures and easing lockdown may concur with increased transmissibility of COVID-19.